December 18, 2020
Nickel point of view: in recent years, the macro atmosphere is relatively strong, coupled with the good news of new energy vehicles at home and abroad, nickel price performance is strong under the promotion of funds. At present, the ferronickel stainless steel industry chain is weak, and the nickel bean new energy industry chain is relatively strong. However, the impact of ferronickel price on nickel refining is relatively small, and nickel ore shortage is gradually emerging, and ferronickel plants are reducing production. The demand side consumption of nickel beans is strong, and the production of ternary materials continues to rise. In the short term, 300 series stainless steel production continues to reduce, but the overall consumption performance of refined nickel is still good, and the nickel price is still below There is strong support. In the medium and long term, the supply of refined nickel will remain stable in 2021, and the demand for secondary refined nickel in stainless steel will resume to grow, and the demand for ternary batteries will grow strongly. The existing expected increase in wet process capacity supply can not meet the consumption increase of ternary batteries. In 2021, the supply of refined nickel may be in short supply, and the price of nickel will be bullish for a long time and buy on bargain.
304 stainless steel variety:
Last week, 300 series stainless steel inventory continued to decline, of which the cold rolling decline was larger, and the hot rolling slightly recovered. Yesterday, the price of hot-rolled and cold-rolled plates of 304 mainstream stainless steel plants in China was reduced by 200 yuan / T, reflecting some of the previous gains, and the market sentiment weakened again, and the downstream just needed to purchase. In the near future, the spot supply is still tight, but the middle line supply pressure is too large, and the market confidence is insufficient. At present, the civil consumption performance of Foshan market is better, and the industrial demand of Wuxi has turned weak.
Stainless steel point of view: in the near future, ferronickel plants have reduced production after large-scale losses, and ferronickel prices have risen slightly, and the cost of stainless steel plants will remain high. In the near future, the spot supply of 304 stainless steel is tight, the downstream demand performance is fair, and there is a short-term periodic rebound. However, the medium and long-term supply pressure is huge, and the overall pressure pattern in 2021 is difficult to change.